Let Me Run — Preparing Boys for the Long Run
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SR
Report · S14–S25

Site Retention

Which schools run a team again the next season, and what predicts it. Headline: 76.3% of schools came back within a year. Data through Spring 2025; Fall 2026 is added once registration closes.

Let Me Run · Site Retention
Do schools come back?
Spring 2014 – Spring 2025 · 832 schools, 2,666 school-seasons. A school came back if it had a team the very next term or the same term a year later — a team running Fall 2024 counts as back with a team in Spring 2025 or Fall 2025. Companion to the Retention Study, which asks the same question about boys.
Came back
76.3%
of school-seasons came back within a year (2,033/2,666)
School-seasons
2,666
a school with at least one boy in a fall or spring
Schools
832
distinct Pinwheel sites
Starting seasons
18
9 falls and 9 springs; COVID years left out

What the data says

When schools are compared side by side with everything else equal, four things clearly help. Out of every 100 schools, about 14 more come back when they also ran a team the term before, about 10 more when they are in their 5th season instead of their 1st, about 10 more with 16 boys instead of 8, and about 7 more in a focus region. Having 3 or more coaches helps a little, about 4 more.

A returning coach, all-parent coaching staff and returning boys look strong on their own, but mostly because big, long-running schools have more of all of them. With everything else equal, none of them makes a clear difference.

What makes a difference, with everything else equal
Each line compares two kinds of schools that are alike in every other way on this list, and in region and year. The number is how many more schools out of every 100 come back. The dot is our best estimate and the bar shows how far off it could be. If the bar crosses the dashed middle line, we can’t tell whether it makes any difference.
-15-10-50+5+10+15+20+25Also ran a team the term before+14In its 5th season instead of its 1st+1016 boys signed up instead of 8+10Focus region instead of Expansion+73 or more coaches instead of 1 or 2+42 or more teams instead of 1+2A coach came back from last year-1Returning boys: half the team (vs none)-1Every coach is a parent of a boy on the team-5fewer ← schools coming back, out of every 100 → more
Also ran a team the term before+14
In its 5th season instead of its 1st+10
16 boys signed up instead of 8+10
Focus region instead of Expansion+7
3 or more coaches instead of 1 or 2+4
2 or more teams instead of 1+2
A coach came back from last year-1
Returning boys: half the team (vs none)-1
Every coach is a parent of a boy on the team-5
fewer0more
Clearly makes a difference
No clear difference
Size and track record together
Two of the factors that hold up. A small first-year school is the most likely to fold; a big school five seasons in is the least.
0%20%40%60%80%56.8%n=32271.1%n=4811st season70.5%n=31579.0%n=7442nd-4th season80.7%n=19288.7%n=6125th season or later
Under 10 boys
10+ boys
Return rate by season
Share of schools that came back within a year, by the season they started from. Hover a dot for the count.
40%50%60%70%80%201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025COVIDStarted Fall 2014: 77.2% of 101 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2015: 74.6% of 122 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2016: 70.8% of 161 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2017: 82.1% of 184 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2018: 79.8% of 252 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2021: 73.5% of 102 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2022: 72.6% of 135 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2023: 75.0% of 144 schools came back within a yearStarted Fall 2024: 76.5% of 153 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2014: 83.8% of 80 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2015: 78.4% of 102 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2016: 75.4% of 138 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2017: 82.7% of 162 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2018: 78.3% of 240 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2022: 62.4% of 117 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2023: 72.0% of 143 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2024: 76.8% of 155 schools came back within a yearStarted Spring 2025: 75.4% of 175 schools came back within a year
Started in fall
Started in spring
One factor at a time
Raw return rates
Simple percentages, one factor at a time, with nothing else evened out. Green = at least 5 more schools out of every 100 than the 76.3% average, red = at least 5 fewer.
Region
GroupSchoolsCame back
Charlotte1,03582.3%
Columbus16072.5%
Expansion1,16971.3%
Seattle10379.6%
St. Louis19974.9%
Seasons the site had already run
GroupSchoolsCame back
1st season80365.4%
2nd48273.4%
3rd-4th57779.0%
5th-7th39188.0%
8th+41385.7%
Boys registered that season
GroupSchoolsCame back
1-512155.4%
6-970869.6%
10-141,17876.8%
15-1939485.8%
20+26586.8%
Teams at the site
GroupSchoolsCame back
1 team2,53075.6%
2+ teams13687.5%
Coaches on file
GroupSchoolsCame back
none on file2075.0%
121964.8%
298773.4%
3+1,44080.0%
Who coaches
GroupSchoolsCame back
all parent-coaches26573.2%
mixed parent + non-parent99779.3%
no coach on file2075.0%
no parent-coaches1,38474.6%
Coach continuity
GroupSchoolsCame back
a coach returned from last yr95682.8%
no coach on file2075.0%
no returning coach1,69072.5%
Returning boys (share who ran here before)
GroupSchoolsCame back
0%1,18867.0%
1-25%40980.0%
26-50%62384.0%
51%+44686.8%
Ran the term just before too
GroupSchoolsCame back
yes (fall team ran the spring before, or spring team ran the fall before)1,18487.2%
no1,48267.5%
Term
GroupSchoolsCame back
Fall1,35476.3%
Spring1,31276.2%
How we measured this (definitions, caveats — click to expand)

What a school is

A school is a Pinwheel site ID. A school-season is a school with at least one registered boy in a fall or a spring. Spring 2013, waiver events and summer events are left out; old programs are folded into today’s five regions.

Came back

At least one registered boy in the very next term or the same term a year later. Fall 2025 and Spring 2026 are not scored yet because Fall 2026 registration is still open. Spring 2019 through Spring 2021 are left out (COVID). “Ran a team the term before” overlaps with coming back: a school that runs both terms has two chances inside the year, so read it as “year-round schools tend to stay”.

Coaches

Coaches are matched to a school through their team; about one coach row in nine could not be matched and is left out of the coach factors. A parent-coach is a coach whose email matches a guardian email of a boy at the same school that season; emails tied to four or more boys at one school are treated as coordinators.

Seasons already run

Counts back only to Spring 2014, so schools that started earlier look younger than they are in the first few years.

Everything else equal

A standard statistical model that holds region, term and year steady, on school-seasons with at least one coach on file. The ranges come from re-running it 200 times on resampled schools. Financial aid and Title I are not used: the aid data is too unreliable and Title I is blank for most rows.

Correlated, not causal

A big roster may keep a school alive, or a healthy school may simply draw a big roster.

Source: LMR Participants All-Time thru 2026-09-23 and LMR Coaches S14–S26 (Pinwheel exports). Differences are shown as extra schools coming back out of every 100. Focus regions = Charlotte (incl. Gaston County & Upper Palmetto), Columbus, St. Louis, Seattle; Expansion = all other markets. Prepared October 2026.